Cleveland Browns-Baltimore Ravens | Preview and Prediction | Sunday 11-2-08

Sunday at 1:00 on CBS the old Browns and the new Browns take the field together for the second time this year. The first matchup was a certified disaster for the Browns, as the Ravens’ defense stole the momentum in the 3rd quarter and ran away with a 28-10 lead. Remember, Cleveland led this game 10-7 at the half. Then Derek Anderson decided to start throwing interceptions (3 on the day) and the offense dug a hole that it could not get out of.

After that game, the Baltimore Ravens were sitting pretty at 2-0. The Cleveland Browns were wallowing in the depressing depths of 0-3. They looked like two teams going in drastically opposite directions from what all the preseason prognosticators had predicted. It looked like the Ravens would be surprisingly competitive in the AFC North while the Browns would join the Bengals in the AFC North cellar for all of 2008.

But the tide has turned.

Since that Baltimore game, the Cleveland Browns are 3-1. No opponent has scored more than 17 points on the Browns since the Ravens threw up their 28-spot. And what many people may not realize is that Derek Anderson has not thrown an interception since the first drive of the second half against Cincinnati, the game after the first Baltimore contest. Take away Anderson’s horrid interceptions in Browns territory against the Ravens and it is a completely different ballgame.

On the flip side, the Ravens are 2-3 since the first Browns meeting. Their four wins this year have come against the Bengals, Dolphins, Raiders, and a Browns team that was playing as bad as any team in the NFL at the time. The Ravens losses have come against the Steelers, Titans, and Colts.

So here is the big question the Browns must answer, and will answer, this weekend: Which group of teams are they closer to: the Steelers-Titans-Colts group that is competing for AFC supremacy; or the Dolphins-Raiders-Bengals group that comprises the bottom portion of the AFC standings? The result of Sunday’s game will tell us a lot about where the Browns fit into the AFC hierarchy.

Let me put it simply: the Browns should win on Sunday. They are playing at home, they have more talent on defense, and — ready for the shocker — they have a pretty comparable defense. Don’t believe me? Look at the numbers. The Ravens have given up significantly fewer yards on the season, but it has not translated into significantly fewer points. And remember, when you look at the season totals for Points Against, that 14 of the points given up by the Browns in the first Browns-Ravens game as a result of an INT return for a touchdown, and another turnover inside the 20. Outside of the Dallas game to open the season, the Browns D has been as stingy as any in the league outside of Tennessee.

Here are a few quick keys to the game:

For the love of Jim Brown, get Jamal Lewis the ball 20 times.

Let me keep this simple: the Browns are 11-1 when Jamal carries it 20 times. The Ravens have playmakers in the secondary who seem to have Derek’s number. Jamal only got the ball 12 times in the first meeting, and Derek sunk our chances with terrible decision-making and throws. While Derek is playing better, I would feel much better about this game if we run it 30 times before he throws it 30 times. Ed Reed scares the crap out of me, but Jamal-Jerome-Jason could scare the crap out of the Ravens if we would commit to using them all more consistently. But the main point is: let Jamal do what he does best; namely, wear down a defense and control the clock. If we do, we win. If we get cute and too pass-happy, we will make the game much more difficult on ourselves.

Shaun Rogers needs to remain beastly.

There are a lot of reasons why the defense is better this year, but two stand out above all the others. One, we are getting much more consistent play from every defensive back not named Terry Cousins. Two, Shaun Rogers is playing like Albert Haynesworth. He absolutely owned the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, and we need him to own the Ravens this week. Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee combined for 130 yards rushing in the first meeting. We need to get that number under 100 and make Joe Flacco beat us. I like our chances with Flacco throwing into the play-making maelstrom that is Eric Wright-Brandon McDonald-Brodney Pool. He threw two picks last game, but we let the Ravens off the hook with putrid run D and horrible offense. Our offense is playing better, and I am not as fearful now of the costly turnovers. But the run D still scares me. If Shaun Rogers can help the Browns control the line of scrimmage and pressure Joe Flacco, we should maintain control the game.

Romeo Crennel needs to be The Man.

Look, I’m resigned to the fact that there a few things we are never (or very rarely) going to get from Romeo Crennel: emotional outbursts and consistently solid clock management being the most obvious. But I have never read or heard anything that suggests that Romeo Crennel does not have the respect of the players in the locker room. Well, he needs to prove that this Sunday, and prove that he is, in fact, the leader of this team. Why?

Kellen Winslow is back.

Normally, the return of one of your five most talented players is cause for celebration, not consternation. But when you are 2-0 without said player, and 1-4 with him, a lot of doubt start to creep into the minds of fans; and probably players as well. Who knows what the true reason is for the Browns success without Kellen Winslow. Coincidence? A relaxed Derek Anderson? Kellen Winslow’s talents being overrated? Steve Heiden actually being a white (though surprisingly tanned) Shannon Sharpe? Better play-calling? I don’t know. Maybe it’s a combination of all of those things.

Here is what I do know: I’m just a lonely ‘ol blogger waxing loquaciously about the sports subjects that interest me. I am not paid millions of dollars to figure those things out, but Romeo Crennel and his coaches are. Whatever positive vibes or karma or strategies have allowed the Browns to play their two best games without Kellen Winslow need to be on display this Sunday with Kellen WInslow. A coach’s job is to maximize the talent that he has to worth with in an effort to maximize the team’s chances to win each Sunday. So either Kellen Winslow needs to be reincorporated into the offense in a way that improves our chances to win, or he needs to be employed differently (or not all) so that he is not hindering our chances to win. I’m sorry, but 2-0 and 1-4 is pretty convincing evidence that something is amiss when Kellen is on the field.

Romeo, it’s up to you and the coaches to figure this out and make it work. If you do, the Browns will be 4-4 after Sunday and right in the think of the AFC North and AFC wild care races. If you don’t, and the team fails to display the cohesion it has shown in the two wins without Kellen Winslow, our chances of fulfilling the preseason promise for 2008 will start to become exceedingly slim.

I say we do. Kellen Winslow seems to be a bit humbled (at least publicly) and no one has ever accused him of not giving 100% on the field in an effort to win. The Browns are right at the corner, ready to turn it, and become a legit playoff contender. Sunday at home against Baltimore is the corner, and a .500 record awaits with 8 games to go. It’s right there for the taking. Step up and take it Browns.

Prediction: Cleveland Browns 20 | Baltimore Ravens 10

[tags]cleveland browns, baltimore ravens, nfl, football[/tags]

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