Chicago White Sox – Tampa Bay Rays | Game Two Preview
Friday at 5:00 CT the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays will begin Game Two of their American League Division Series. I have made my thoughts about this series known in previous posts, so you know that I thought the White Sox would lose Game One and then take the next three to win the series.
So why will the White Sox win Game Two? Here are two key reasons as we preview tomorrow’s game:
1 – The White Sox have the better lefty. Game Two features a tremendous pitching matchup between White Sox ace Mark Buehrle and Tampa Bay ace Scott Kazmir. Both pitchers have had up-and-down seasons, and can be erratic throughout a long, 162-game season, but they would be each team’s first choice to be on the bump if their teams absolutely had to have a win. It will be a great matchup. Who has the edge? Well, let’s look at some numbers.
Season: 12-8 | 3.49 ERA | 166:70 K:BB | 1.27 WHIP
vs White Sox (2008): 1-0 | 2.08 ERA | 13:5 K:BB | .163 BAA
in September: 2-2 | 5.19 ERA | 26:15 K:BB | .240 BAA
Playoff Experience: None
Season: 15-12 | 3.79 ERA | 140:52 K:BB | 1.34 WHIP
vs Tampa Bay (2008): 0-1 | 4.58 ERA | 15:6 K:BB | .316 BAA
in September: 4-1 | 2.29 ERA | 30:10 K:BB | .267 BAA
Playoff Experience: 3-1 | 3.42 ERA | 13:1 K:BB | 1 World Series Title
So, what do the numbers tell us? Well, their overall stats for the year were relatively similar. Scott Kazmir obviously had greater success against White Sox hitters than Mark Buehrle did against Rays hitters. However, I think the bottom two rows of each stat line are the most telling. When his team needed him most this season, in September, Mark Buehrle was outstanding after really struggling in August. That is why Mark
Buehrle is an ace in the truest sense of the word: he knows how to turn it up a notch when his team needs him. And Mark Buehrle has successful playoff experience. He has won a World Series and has proven he is capable of pitching big in big games.
Is Scott Kazmir?
Well, with his team fighting to win the AL East down the stretch, Kazmir limped home with a 5.19 ERA. Something tells me that might have been artificially inflated, as his K:BB and BAA were not awful. However, team aces and trusted big game pitchers do not produce 5.19 ERAs down the stretch.
Pitching usually dictates all baseball games, and this axiom is especially true in the postseason. Just as I thought Javier Vazquez would be the reason the White Sox would lose today, I can state with the utmost confidence Mark Buehrle gives the White Sox a tremendous advantage tomorrow.
2 – Tampa Bay has a talented young roster. However, for all of their talent, they have only played in one postseason game. Of course, as Evan Longoria proved today, experience isn’t always everything. But today the Rays faced a pitcher struggling with his confidence who has consistently failed in big games (Javier Vazquez). Tomorrow, they face a pitcher in Mark Buehrle who will dictate the pace of the action, pound the strike zone, probably give up some hits but also get some double plays, and will make them earn any run they get.
The White Sox hitters have a difficult task as well if the Scott Kazmir that shows up is not the same guy from September. The difference between the White Sox and Rays’ hitters is the experienced presence in the heart of the White Sox order. Jim Thome and Ken Griffey Jr have loads of experience (though not a lot of successful playoff experience) and were huge in the one-game playoff against the Minnesota Twins. Alexei Ramirez and Dewayne Wise have injected a new presence into the White Sox lineup this year and come up with big hits in key moments.
The key for the White Sox, though, will be the contributions of Jermaine Dye (the 2005 World Series MVP) and Paul Konerko (the White Sox team captain). Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko are the types of experienced 
veterans who step up in key moments. They always have. Obviously, Jermaine Dye stepped up huge in the 2005 World Series, and was equally as outstanding in 2006 despite the failure of the White Sox pitching staff to allow the team to make a return trip to the playoffs. Paul Konerko has made a tremendous impact during the stretch run for the White Sox. After enduring injuries and horrific struggles at the plate all summer that included a platoon at first base for a time, Paulie rebounded in September to slug .649 with 9 home runs and 15 RBIs.
Tomorrow will be a prime game for these two White Sox leaders to step up and lead the White Sox to a victory. Not only have they proven to be clutch, but they are the two White Sox hitters who have found success against Scott Kazmir. For his career, Jermaine Dye is hitting .333 against Scott Kazmir in 15 ABs, and has hit 2 home runs. Paul Konerko is also hitting .333 against Scott Kazmir, with a home run, a double, and 2 RBIs. I think both of these guys will step up and drive in at least one run, if not more.
With Mark Buehrle on the hill going 8 strong innings and then handing the game off to Bobby Jenks, two runs may be all it will take for (Ed Farmer Alert!) a White Sox winner. I think the White Sox will tack on a couple more than two, and Mark Buehrle will give up two of his own in 8 innings while scattering 9 hits, walking one, and striking out 4. Bobby Jenks…umm, did you see the tenacity in his eyes against the Twins on Tuesday night? He’s dialed in, and not giving up anything. (Hawk Harrelson Alert!) You can put it on the board — a 4-2 White win — Yeees!
[tags]chicago white sox, tampa bay rays, baseball, mlb, mlb playoffs, mark buehrle[/tags]
Tags: baseball, Chicago White Sox, jermaine dye, mark buehrle, MLB, mlb playoffs, paul konerko, tampa bay rays
---------------
If you enjoyed this post, please consider sharing with your friends:
