Browns – Redskins Preview and Prediction | Kellen Winslow Injury Update

(For the latest on Kellen Winslow’s current spat with Browns’ management, visit the Cleveland Browns news page or read the post specifically regarding Kellen Winslow being upset, and Romeo Crennel’s reaction.)

This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns (2-3) travel to the nation’s capital to take on the Washington Redskins (4-2). A week ago, with the Browns sitting at 1-3 and with little momentum and the Redskins coming off two straight division wins and sitting at 4-1, this game appeared to be little more than an afterthought in the NFL schedule.

However, after last weekend’s results, this game is now much more important; and much less obvious to predict.

Monday night, the Cleveland Browns shocked the NFL by defeating the previously undefeated New York Giants. The shock was not that the Browns won the game — we all know that anyone in the NFL can beat anyone else on any given Sunday (or Monday). What was shocking was the way the Browns won the game. Other than committing too many false start penalties, the Browns were quintessentially efficient as they became one of the only four teams since 1963 to complete an entire game without turning the ball over, punting, or taking a sack. Mind you, this was an offense coming in that appeared to not know its elbow from its a-hole (to borrow the famously used line in commercials uttered by Shannon Sharpe on NFL Films).

Furthermore, the Browns’ secondary dominated the game when the Giants had the ball. Eli Manning had been on a roll ever since the end of last season, while the Browns’ young secondary was much maligned in the offseason for being too unproven and inexperienced to be anything more than a liability. However, second-year cornerback Eric Wright was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week after sealing the victory with an INT return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter; and Brandon McDonald and Brodney Pool also each stole an errant pass of Manning’s.

Led by the secondary, as well as a career-high receiving day from Braylon Edwards and a return to form for Derek Anderson, the Cleveland Browns completed a 35-14 victory of the New York Giants, the NFL’s consensus top team at the time.

On the flip side, Washington came into last weekend riding high after consecutive road victories over the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles. Led by a resurgent Jason Campbell and the punishing running of Clinton Portis, the Redskins were rolling and beginning to make believers out of NFL pundits across the country. They ran into a buzzsaw last Sunday, though — facing a winless St. Louis Rams team that had been liberated from incompetent head coaching rule of Scott Linehan. The Rams found a way to do something they haven’t done much over the last two years: win. Clinton Portis said after the game that the culpability for the loss fell to the Redskins players, who seemed to buy into their own hype and did not take the Rams seriously enough.

After their experience from the last weekend, and watching the Cleveland Browns on Monday night, there is very little chance that the Washington Redskins will overlook their opponent this weekend.

Here a few of the most important keys to this Sunday’s game (4:15 ET) between the Cleveland Browns and Washington Redskins:

1 — The health of Kellen Winslow. ***For the most up-to-date information on Kellen Winslow, which have may changed since this posting, go to the Cleveland Browns news page***

Kellen Winslow was finally released from the hospital on Monday and spent the next three days at his home receiving treatment for an undisclosed illness. It appears that Kellen Winslow will practice on Friday, but his status for the Sunday game with the Redskins remains in doubt. In his absence on Monday, Steve Heiden and Darnell Dinkins picked up the slack and had productive games, but even Heiden knows that the Browns need Kellen Winslow to experience significant long term success.

In discussing his increased role Monday night with Winslow on the sidelines, Heiden said: “You want to be as involved as you can be, but in the years when I was catching all those balls, we had what, five wins? Last year, I caught 12 and we won 10 games. I would much rather win games than catch footballs.”

People are starting to whisper that the Browns without Kellen Winslow could be like the New York Giants last season, who took off once their outspoken tight end, Jeremy Shockey, was lost for the season to injury. I can understand the analogy, but I firmly believe it is false. One good game from Steve Heiden and Darnell Dinkins does not prove that the Cleveland Browns experience addition by subtraction with Winslow out of the lineup. He is passionate and outspoken, but I have never heard any leaks out of the Browns camp that Kellen Winslow is anything but a positive influence and emotional leader on this team and his quarterback. The Browns is offense adds one more element of dynamic play-making potential with Kellen Winslow on the field. I think it is a severe disadvantage if he is forced to miss this game due to the mystery injury. As of right now, it looks like this is case — and you have to wonder how effective he would be even if he was able to suit up given his lack of activity during the week.

2 — The running game of the Washington Redskins.

Besides the false start penalties, the only other glaring red flag from the Monday nighter against the Giants was the Browns’ inability to stop the run. Granted, the Giants have run it on everyone this year, coming into the Monday night game averaging 5.8 yards per rush. And they continued on Monday, gouging the Browns defense up the middle over and over again. Luckily, the defensive backs were able to make plays that killed drives, and the Browns were able to pressure Eli Manning when he wasn’t handing the ball off.

The Browns need to fix their run defense though. They are giving up 137 yards rushing per game, while the Redskins and Clinton Portis come into this Sunday averaging 152.3 yards per game on the ground. The bright side for the Browns is that Clinton Portis is not practicing this week due to injury, though he will play. How effective will he be? That remains to be seen. Former NFL MVP Shaun Alexander was signed this week to fill in for the injured Ladell Betts as Portis’ primary backup. Obviously, the more the Browns see of Soft Alexander the better.

I see this as a statement game for the Browns’ front 7, just as Monday night was for the offense going up against a great defense in the Giants.. Stopping the run has been an issue all year, and the Browns D has a chance to prove that they are capable of doing so against a team that runs the ball proficiently. If the Redskins can control the clock and eat up yards on the ground, Jason Campbell becomes a much more effective quarterback and is not forced to win games on his own. The Redskins had turned the ball over once this season before last weekend’s game against St. Louis. The main reason is their ability to run the ball effectively and mostly stay out of desperate down and distance measurements to keep drives alive. These are the circumstances that oftentimes precede poor throws from QBs trying to make plays. Jason Campbell has played with confidence and control because he can rely on one of the best ground attacks in the NFL.

In Week 1, the Giants held Clinton Portis to under 85 yards and they lost. The Browns need to fight and claw to do the same this weekend and put more of the onus on Jason Campbell to beat them. He may prove capable, but I’ll take my chances with a still unproven quarterback as opposed to Clinton Portis controlling the game. Luckily for the Browns, the Redskins backs are injured or old and rusty, so this could turn into a surprising advantage on Sunday.

3 — The play of the quarterbacks

True, it is easy to call this a key to the game because nearly every NFL game is decided by the effectiveness of the quarterbacks. But in the case of the Browns and Redskins, two teams built around talented but inexperienced and erratic quarterbacks, they truly go as their quarterbacks go.

Based on the totality of the season thus far, the Redskins would seem to have the advantage here. Jason Campbell has been coolly efficient, with a 96.2 QB rating, 6 TDs, and no INTs. Derek Anderson, on the other hand, has basically played six good quarters of football and 14 subpar quarters. Buoyed by his Monday night performance, Derek Anderson has raised his QB rating from the depths of Tyler Thigpen territory to a more respectable (but still pathetic) 64.1. He has 5 TDs and 6 INTs.

They key to this game will be interceptions, as it was for the Browns on Monday night and has been for the Redskins all year. Derek Anderson is prone to making bad reads and poor decisions — even when playing well, he is good for at least two or three hiccups a game. The hope is that the poorly thrown balls or bad decisions find their way to the ground and not an opponent’s hands. Working in Derek Anderson’s favor is the fact that the Washington Redskins’ secondary is banged up. Shawn Springs has been hurt, but participated in practice towards the end of the week. Fred Smooth was limited in the practice, while Carlos Rogers has an injured calf and has not suited up yet this week. A secondary at less than optimal effectiveness will obviously be a boon for the Browns resurgent offense, which now has Donte Stallworth opposite Braylon Edwards.

The Browns proved last year, and again on Monday night, that they need the deep pass to be a major part of their offense. Rod Chudzinski must allow Derek to air it out to Braylon and Donte down the field to open up the middle for the battering ram Jamal Lewis. This is the formula for success for the Browns. If Derek can stay away from the interceptions, as he did Monday night, the Browns have an excellent chance of moving the ball through the air against a Washington defense already giving up more than 200 yards passing per game and coming in banged up.

On the flip side, the Browns absolutely have to continue forcing turnovers. The most pleasant surprise of this young season of frustration for the Browns has been the playmaking ability of the defense. Kamerion Wimbley still needs to find that extra burst to complete sacks when he gets close, and Shaun Rogers must continue to be a stalwart in the middle, and D’Qwell Jackson must continue flying to ball and being a consistent tackler; but most importantly, the Browns defensive secondary must make Jason Campbell when he makes a mistake. On Monday night, Eli Manning paid dearly for his mistakes, and Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald are giving Browns fans hope that this can become a consistent theme of the Browns defense.

With the Redskins’ running game a question mark, it is reasonable to expect Jason Campbell to throw the ball more than normal on Sunday. I think this plays right into the hands of the Browns. Brandon McDonald and Eric Wright are small, quick cornerbacks. And though it was usually Terry Cousins getting burned by Plaxico Burress when the Giants were able to move it through the air, big receivers can give the Browns trouble. Washington, however, employs Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El on the outside. Both are playmakers, and quick as hell, but they won’t be able to abuse the Browns because of their height. Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald have to come out and neutralize the outside passing game of the Redskins. Ideally, the Browns defense can force Jason Campbell into his first one or two interceptions and provide more opportunities for an offense that is getting its swagger back.

Prediction

This is a tough game to predict, but one thing is for sure: both of these teams will come out ready to play. The Browns are 2-3, and still in jeopardy of seeing their playoffs slip away with a few more losses early in the season. They will not be resting on the laurels of their Monday Night victory, but will be hungry for me and prove it was not a fluke. The Redskins are in a very competitive division and coming off a surprising upset defeat to a previously winless game. They will not be taking the Browns lightly, especially after watching what Cleveland did to their NFC East brethren Monday night.

I would be very surprised if this is not a close game that comes down to the 4th quarter. If Kellen Winslow is able to go and be effective for the Browns, obviously it would boost their chances. Either way, I see the Browns completing a two week sweep of a couple of NFC East powerhouses. The injury to Clinton Portis places the durability of the Redskins’ running game in doubt. There is no doubt about the durability of the Browns running game. If the Browns can get to the 4th quarter with a lead (and I think they will, powered by a few big plays downfield that take advantage of the Redskins’ hampered secondary) I think Jamal Lewis and the offensive line will be able to close it out. And look for Eric Wright or Brandon McDonald to come up with another 4th quarter interception from a quarterback in Jason Campbell who gets out of his comfort zone trying to put the game on his shoulders with Portis not at full strength.

It won’t be easy by any means, but this is a game the Browns can go on the road and steal.

Cleveland Browns 24 Washington Redskins 17

(And remember, we were right about the Browns-Giants game. Just saying…)

[tags]nfl, football, cleveland browns, washington redskins, kellen winslow, prediction[/tags]

Tags: Cleveland Browns, clinton portis, football, kellen winslow, NFL, prediction, preview, washington redskins

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