by Josh Morris
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From pick #199 in the 2000 draft to 4 Pro Bowl appearances and 3 Super Bowl victories in a 4 year span, New England’s Golden Boy Tom Brady has surmounted an elongated path to become arguably the most dominant QB of the modern NFL era. Since 2002 Brady’s seasonal stats have flirted with excellence; Throwing 23+ touchdowns, Avg. QB Rating of 85+, and over 3500 Pass Yards. Not to mention his Single-Season record of 50 TDs in the 2007 season with almost half of those delicacies belonging to newcomer Randy Moss. And why not throw in that his 4,806 Passing Yards were the 3rd best of all time for a QB. Peyton who?
So why ramble on about a player whose top tier performances hardly need any more textual recognition? One word: history.
Even for a stud like Brady, repeating those stellar numbers of his 2007 season is highly improbable for
several reasons. First, let’s take a look at New England’s receiving core last season. From the sleeper performance of Wes Welker to Moss being the go-to guy in single coverage (No, Anthony Smith, not even your guaranteed victory could halt their circus show), Brady’s arsenal of throwing options was plenty throughout the year.
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Next let’s observe how QBs after their breakout seasons followed up. Peyton Manning in ’04 with a single-season record of 49 passing TDs, followed the next year with 28. Kurt Warner in ’99 with 41 TDs had only 21 in ’00, and in 01’ after having 36 passing TDs, merely thrice he threw a touchdown pass in all of ’02. Daunte Culpepper in 2004 with 36 TD passes, trailed by a deflated 6 TD passes in ’05.
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These star QBs were presumably snatched up early in fantasy drafts the next year, only to fall short of their expectations and be accountable for several ‘bust’ seasons in fantasy. It’s true that none of those teams behind Peyton or Culpeppe
r stampeded through a season 16-0. It’s also a fact that defenses are given an entire off-season to adjust accordingly from their previous mishaps, which is obviously a little longer than a week between games. It’s hardly likely Moss will roam freely in single-coverage let alone catch another franchise record in TDs in ‘08.
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My overall summation is this: The odds of Brady repeating his phenomenal number in ’07 are as probable as China’s female gymnasts in the Olympics were 16. Greats like Culpepper and Manning have struggled after breakout years, and who’s to say Brady will not travel that same road? Tommy boy has a date with History. Don’t overdraft Brady as a 3rd or 4th pick this year, as he will probably not even be in the top 10 players in fantasy points this year. And as a final reminder: Isn’t this the QB who bombed against that tool Eli and his Giants in the Game for all the marbles? Immense pressure might be too arduous for Brady this season as this year opponents will be ready to take the bull by the horns.
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